I’ve found it challenging trying to determine the amount I should commit to a prediction when there is little participation or low value participation at the time of entry.
Presumably the market should encourage one to risk more capital if they have greater certainty of a particular outcome. However if there is low value participation, it takes a ‘first mover’ to step in with a sizeable commitment to encourage more capital to enter a particular prediction market in order to create risk/reward assessment.
I would like to suggest that a special ‘sentinel’ or ‘whale’ status be given to one market participant in each prediction market whereby the whale has an option to unwind their prediction amount only to match the next highest single prediction amount in that particular market (The Sentinel status is awarded to the highest single prediction amount committed). The Sentinel status should be awarded fairly early on (ie. Once 30% of live duration has passed) and unwind (if desired ) must be executed leaving some time to spare in the live duration, perhaps once 75% of the live duration has passed.
This type of mechanism could encourage more capital commitment and participation in any given market.